DA from January 2018 payable Central Government Employees and Pensioners
is estimated to be 7% – 2% increase in Dearness Allowance is expected
from the Month of January 2018
Calculation DA from January 2018 based on All India Conumer Price Index
for the months from January 2017 to October 2017 with estimated index
for November and December 2017
After witnessing a static level of Consumer Price Index for the months
from July 2017 to September 2017, we have two point increase in CPI (IW)
for the month of October 2017.
DA from July 2017 – Govt has recently released All India Consumer Price
Index (Industrial Workers) for the month of May 2017 (AICPI – IW)
Labour Bureau press release on All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) for the month of November 2017
On the basis of actual Consumer Price Index for 10 Months and projected
CPI (IW) for the months of November 2017 and December 2017, we have
estimated here the DA from January 2018 applicable to Central Government
Employees including Railway Employees and Defence Personnel and all
Pensioners.
Projected CPI for Nov and Dec 2017
ActualModerateInflationHighInflationNegativeInflationMonthCPICPICPICPIJan-2017274274274274Feb-2017274274274274Mar-2017275275275275Apr-2017277277277277May-2017278278278278Jun-2017280280280280Jul-2017285285285285Aug-2017285285285285Sep-2017285285285285Oct-2017287287287287Nov-2017288288288288Dec-2017—269300268DA
from Jan 187%8%6%
Moderate increase or Static CPI (IW) in the months of November and December 2017:
DA with effect from 1st January 2017= [ (274+274+275+277+278+280+285+285+285+287+288+269]-(261.4)X100/261.4
= 7 %
As you could see from the table and calculation above, with the actual
consumer price index from January 2017 to November 2017 and very safely
projected CPI for December 2017 (269), DA from January 2018 for Central
Government Employees is estimated to be 7%.
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High Inflation and consequent increase in CPI (IW) in the months of November and December 2017:
DA with effect from 1st January 2017= [ (274+274+275+277+278+280+285+285+285+287+288+295]-(261.4)X100/261.4
= 8 %
Only if Consumer Price Index touches 300 in the months of December 2017, DA from January 2018 would increase to 8% .
So 3% increase in DA from January 2018 is possible only if very High
Inflation in the price of essential commodities is noticed and
consequent increase in CPI (IW) in the months of November and December
2017.
Since actual CPI for November 2017 is at 288, 12 point increase in CPI (IW) for the month of December 2017 is not expected.
Negative Inflation and consequent decrease in CPI (IW) in the months of November and December 2017:
DA with effect from 1st January 2017= [ (274+274+275+277+278+280+285+285+285+287+280+268]-(261.4)X100/261.4
= 6 %
In the case of negative projection of CPI (IW) for November 2017 and
December 2017, DA from January 2018 will be 6% i.e 1% increase in DA
from January 2018, only if CPI decreased to 268 in December 2017. This
scenario is also extremely unlikely considering the inflationary trend
in prices
